Jones Lang LaSalle (JLL) released its Q2 2025 market summary on August 7, and in the logistics sector, it announced the "Logistics Market Dynamics Q2 2025" for Tokyo, Osaka, and Fukuoka.
<Trends in supply and demand in the Tokyo logistics market>
According to the report, the Tokyo Logistics Market saw continued strong demand, with net demand reaching 332,000 m2 in the second quarter of 2025. However, this represents a 43% decrease compared to the previous quarter due to a decline in new supply. Rising transportation costs are driving demand stronger for properties located closer to the city center, while demand is weakening for properties in surrounding areas with longer transportation distances, leading to leasing difficulties for some properties.
In the second quarter of 2025, four new properties totaling 358,000 m2 were supplied, increasing the total stock area by 1.5% compared to the previous quarter. All four properties were supplied in inland areas, two of which were located in the Ken-O Expressway area. The vacancy rate for the entire Tokyo metropolitan area was 10.3%, unchanged from the previous quarter and up 64 basis points year-on-year. The vacancy rate in the bay area fell by 18 basis points to 8.4%, while the vacancy rate in inland areas remained unchanged from the previous quarter at 11.0%.
Looking ahead, it is expected that rents will continue to rise due to robust demand growth driven by e-commerce and other factors, as well as continued increases in construction costs. However, while rents for properties in prime locations are likely to rise significantly, properties in surrounding areas with high vacancy rates and increasing transportation costs may see rent declines.
<Trends in supply and demand in the Osaka logistics market>
In the Osaka logistics market, strong demand and a large volume of new supply resulted in net demand of 236,000 m2 in the second quarter of 2025. Demand is diverse, including from e-commerce companies, 3PL companies, and retailers, suggesting that location-based demand differences are not as pronounced in the Osaka area as they are in the Tokyo area.
In the second quarter of 2025, four new buildings totaling 366,000 square meters were supplied, bringing the total stock area to 7,724,000 square meters, a 5.0% increase compared to the previous quarter. While vacancies in existing properties were absorbed, the increase in vacant area due to the new supply resulted in a vacancy rate of 4.9% for the Osaka metropolitan area, a rise of 152 basis points compared to the previous quarter and 259 basis points compared to the same period last year.
Looking ahead, several new rental properties are expected to be available in the rental market from the latter half of 2025 onwards.
However, numerous reservation contracts have been signed, and the building is expected to be completed with a high occupancy rate. The vacancy rate is expected to decrease by the end of 25.
<Trends in supply and demand in the Fukuoka logistics market>
The Fukuoka logistics market continues to see strong demand, with net demand reaching 26,000 m2 in the second quarter of 2025.
In the second quarter of 2025, there was no new supply, and the total stock area was 1,608,000 m2, a 12.0% increase compared to the same period last year. The vacancy rate for the Fukuoka area as a whole was 3.1%, a decrease of 160 basis points from the previous quarter and a decrease of 31 basis points from the same period last year. In particular, the absorption of vacancies in inland areas with favorable locations pushed down the overall vacancy rate.
Looking ahead, the forecast indicates that the supply-demand situation will continue to be tight in the second half of 2025, due to the continued expansion of e-commerce demand and food logistics. With few vacant properties and a high probability of contracts being finalized for new properties before completion, low vacancy rates are expected to continue for the time being. However, new supply is expected to exceed 2024 levels in areas such as Tosu in 2026-2027, which could lead to an increase in vacancy rates.
