On September 17, Yano Research Institute conducted a survey on the last-mile logistics market (2025), revealing the trends and future prospects of companies entering the market.
<Trends and Forecasts in the Last-Mile Logistics Market Size>
<Share of last-mile logistics market by delivery type in FY2024>
The last-mile logistics market size for fiscal year 2024 is estimated to be 3 trillion yen, a 105.5% increase compared to the previous year, based on delivery fees (including delivery-related services). In fiscal year 2024, the last-mile logistics market as a whole saw an increase in the volume of packages, and "other B900C individual delivery" businesses (excluding courier services) performed well due to rising last-mile logistics costs (logistics expenses).
In terms of volume trends, the volume of goods is increasing, mainly from e-commerce businesses, and the number of packages has also increased due to the trend towards smaller package sizes. Against the backdrop of a serious labor shortage and soaring fuel costs, price negotiations are progressing throughout the industry, and contract freight rates for last-mile logistics (logistics costs) are showing a gradual upward trend.
Major courier companies, in response to a decrease in the number of packages handled following a fare revision in fiscal year 2023, took steps to secure volume in fiscal year 2024 by temporarily lowering contract rates for corporate clients, resulting in an increase in the number of packages handled once again.
Among businesses providing "other B2C individual delivery" services, excluding courier services, the increase is attributed to factors such as the shift and expansion of delivery networks from courier services to in-house arrangements, primarily by major mail-order companies, as well as rising last-mile logistics costs. Businesses providing "other B2C individual delivery" services include mail-order companies, retailers handling online supermarket and convenience store deliveries, and food delivery companies.
The last-mile logistics market size for fiscal year 2025 is projected to reach 3.195 trillion yen, a 103.4% increase compared to the previous year. The market as a whole is expected to see an increase in the volume of shipments by incorporating new needs such as cross-border e-commerce, where goods are purchased from overseas e-commerce sites in countries like China and South Korea and imported into Japan, as well as return gifts for hometown tax donations. In addition, the number of packages handled is expected to increase further as shipments become smaller.
In the "home delivery" sector, the proportion of B2C packages has been increasing year by year since the COVID-19 pandemic began in fiscal year 2020. The shift from B2B to B2C is expected to continue gradually beyond fiscal year 2025, and improvements in unit prices are anticipated, leading to a continued slight upward trend. In "other B2C individual deliveries," the trend of "self-arranged delivery" by shippers, particularly e-commerce businesses, is accelerating, and the volume of packages is expected to continue increasing. The last-mile logistics market size is projected to expand to 3.98 trillion yen by fiscal year 2030.
