On May 31, NX Research Institute announced the results of its "Short-Term Trends in Corporate Logistics Survey" for March 2025.
<Actual and forecast of domestic shipments>
According to the report, the "cargo movement index" for July-September 2025 (actual/projected) is -14, remaining unchanged from the previous period (April-June 2025). The projected "cargo movement index" for October-December 2025 is -6, an increase of 8 points from the current period.
<Actual (and projected) cargo movement index and forecast>
In the trend of the "cargo movement index," the April-June 2020 figures showed a significant decline due to the impact of the COVID-19 shock. This was the third lowest level after the January-March 2009 figures (minus 75) and the April-June 2009 figures (minus 69) following the Lehman Shock.
The July-September figures showed an upward turnaround. Since then, significant gains have continued, with the April-June 2021 figures showing a gain of +16, the first time it has been positive in two and a half years since the October-December 2018 figures. Although there was a 10-point drop in the July-September figures, it rose again in the October-December figures.
In the first quarter of 2022 (January-March), the figures declined again due to the impact of the implementation of priority measures to prevent the spread of the virus. In the second quarter (April-June), the figures fell further, resulting in a negative figure for the first time since the first quarter of 2021 (January-March), and have remained below zero since then.
Furthermore, since the first quarter of 2023 (January-March), the company has experienced double-digit negative figures for 11 consecutive quarters. However, the outlook for the second quarter of 2025 (October-December) anticipates a significant improvement, although it will still be negative, due to expectations of an economic recovery.
