On November 28, Teikoku Databank published the results of its analysis of 195 major food manufacturers regarding price increase trends and outlooks for food products from December 2025 onward.
As of the end of November, 1044 food and beverage items, primarily for household use, are expected to see price increases in 2026. While there will still be price hikes due to rising raw material costs and logistics expenses, this is significantly lower than the forecast of 4417 items for price increases in 2025, which was released at the same time last year. This suggests that the intermittent surge of price increases is expected to temporarily subside towards next spring.
<Trends in factors contributing to price increases (based on the number of items)>
Looking at the factors contributing to price increases in 2026, as in 2025, material-related factors such as "high raw material costs" (99.7%) account for the majority.
While price increases due to service-related costs continue, such as "packaging and materials" (51.5%), "logistics costs" (36.1%) which pass on increased transportation costs due to factors like restrictions on overtime work for truck drivers, and "personnel costs" (34.4%), these figures are on a downward trend compared to 2024.
<Number of Price Increases by Food Category (2022-2026)>
The total number of food and beverage items subject to price increases from January to December 2025 is 20,609. This is a 64.6% increase compared to the previous year (12,520 items) and marks the first time in two years that the number of items has exceeded 20,000 since 2023 (32,396 items).
By food category, "seasonings" (6221 items) was the most numerous, a significant increase from the previous year (1715 items), and the second highest annual figure since 2022.
Prices for "Alcoholic Beverages and Drinks" (4901 items) were raised across a wide range of categories, including soft drinks, beer, sake, shochu, and wine, resulting in a significant increase of over 8% compared to the previous year. The pace of price increases in 2025 remained stronger than in the previous year.
In 2026, compared to 2025, the proportion of companies raising prices due to material costs is higher, with price increases being particularly noticeable due to factors such as poor harvests caused by unfavorable weather and rising prices. There is also a trend to see a shift back from services to materials as the primary cause of price increases.
On the other hand, due to the prolonged weak yen and rising crude oil prices, prices for paper cartons, food trays, and packaging films are expected to increase sequentially from this winter onward, and there is a possibility that price increases due to these factors will spread further in the future.
Based on these factors, Teikoku Databank analyzes that "there are few positive factors that would allow price reductions or price freezes to be maintained, and the large-scale price increase rush is expected to largely subside by the spring of 2026, but the persistent momentum for price increases may continue in the medium to long term."
