On May 5, NX Research Institute announced the results of its "Short-Term Trends in Corporate Logistics Survey" for March 2026.
<Actual and forecast of domestic shipments>
According to the report, the "cargo movement index" for October-December 2025 (actual/projected) is -4. This is a 10-point increase from the previous quarter (July-September 2025). The "cargo movement index" for January-March 2026 is projected to be -6, a 2-point decrease from the current quarter.
<Actual (and projected) cargo movement index and forecast>
In the trend of the "cargo movement index," the April-June 2020 figures showed a significant decline due to the impact of the COVID-19 shock. This was the third lowest level after the January-March 2009 figures (minus 75) and the April-June 2009 figures (minus 69) following the Lehman Shock.
The July-September figures showed an upward turnaround. Since then, significant gains have continued, with the April-June 2021 figures showing a gain of +16, the first time it has been positive in two and a half years since the October-December 2018 figures. Although there was a 10-point drop in the July-September figures, it rose again in the October-December figures.
In the first quarter of 2022 (January-March), the figures declined again due to the impact of the implementation of priority measures to prevent the spread of the virus. In the second quarter (April-June), the figures fell further, resulting in a negative figure for the first time since the first quarter of 2021 (January-March), and have remained below zero since then.
After the first quarter of 2023 (January-March), the company had been sluggish with double-digit declines for 11 consecutive quarters, but the first quarter of 2025 (October-December) showed a significant improvement. While the outlook for January-March 2026 is expected to show a slight decline, there is a strong possibility of an upward revision due to expectations of an economic recovery.
