On June 30nd, Teikoku Databank (TDB) released the results of its analysis on the trends in food price increases from June 2026 onward and future outlooks.
<Monthly trend in the number of items with price increases (as of March 30st, 2024 onwards)>
According to the survey results, 195 major food manufacturers are planning price increases for a total of 6290 items, mainly for household use, from January to October of 2026.
Compared to the same period last year (April 2025, 14,409 items) when the number of items scheduled for price increases exceeded 10,000, the number of price increases currently planned is progressing at a pace of approximately 60% less.
Looking at the price increases for 2026 as of the April survey, the average increase rate per increase was 15%, which is about the same level as the previous year's total (15%). From May onwards, the number of items increased per month fell below 1000 in both June (906 items) and July (952 items), and has also remained below the previous year's level since August.
<Trends in price increase factors based on the number of items (2024-2026)>
The main factor behind the price increases was the rise in the cost of raw materials and other commodities. 99.6% of the price increases were attributed to "rising raw material costs," the highest level since data collection began in 2023.
"Packaging and materials" (69.9%) not only surpassed the previous month's figures, but also significantly exceeded the level of the previous year (60.2%) for the April survey, and represents the fastest pace of growth for the year since 2023. While price increases were mainly due to the continued impact of rising material costs, price increases due to soaring packaging material costs resulting from the worsening situation in the Middle East have begun to appear.
In contrast, "logistics costs" (73.6%), "energy" (59.5%), and "labor costs" (49.4%) all decreased compared to the previous month's survey. While the trend of passing on rising costs due to higher raw material and supply prices continues, price increases stemming from labor costs such as wage increases are relatively decreasing.
<Food companies face a period of downsizing in core businesses due to rising crude oil prices>
Up until now, the price increase in 2026 was expected to be gradual, despite factors such as the government raising the selling price of imported wheat, the prolonged weak yen leading to higher import costs, and ongoing increases in logistics and labor costs since 2025.
However, the geopolitical risks in the Middle East caused by the US and Israeli attacks on Iran, as well as the turmoil in the Strait of Hormuz, are becoming increasingly apparent as factors that cannot be ignored in relation to rising food and beverage prices.
With rising cost pressures becoming more pronounced for food packaging films and petroleum-derived resin materials, strong price increase pressures are being seen in the packaging and materials sector.
If naphtha supply shortages and persistently high price levels continue, packaging material costs will emerge as a new burden with a time lag, making future trends extremely uncertain.
Even if the de facto blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is lifted soon, many believe that disruptions to petrochemical logistics will have long-lasting effects. This is expected to lead to a combination of cost-increasing pressures across various sectors, including the impact of rising raw material and transportation costs linked to high crude oil prices, and energy costs such as electricity and gas that are expected to rise from this summer onward.
Given this situation, it is considered highly likely that a wave of widespread price increases will reignite in the food and beverage sector, possibly as early as this summer or at the latest by autumn.
